Turchin, P. (2016). Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History. Chaplin, CT: Beresta Books. ISBN: 978-0-9964-1380-8.
Full-length application of structural-demographic theory to American history. Predicts the instability of the 2020s based on elite overproduction, popular immiseration, and state fiscal distress. Extends Turchin’s earlier Historical Dynamics framework and confirms the 2010 Nature prediction. For the Three Futures framework, the book provides the case-study application of the structural-demographic mechanism to the specific civilization the framework’s readers are most likely to be operating within.