Janse van Rensburg, T., and Morema, K. (2023, June). Reflections on load-shedding and potential GDP. South African Reserve Bank Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes OBEN/23/01.
The note estimates that potential growth averaged 3.9 percent before the global financial crisis and 1.4 percent after it, and finds that South African growth diverged sharply from global growth after 2008. It concludes that “most of the post-GFC growth slowdown can be attributed to domestic factors,” with electricity supply a leading constraint. The views are the authors’ and not necessarily the Reserve Bank’s. The wiki cites it in South Africa on the Curve for the dating of the break after 2008.