Hsiang, S. M., and Jina, A. S. (2014). The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones. NBER Working Paper 20352. Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research.
The authors reconstruct the cyclone exposure of every country over several decades and estimate its effect on income growth. Losses accumulate through slower growth over about fifteen years: a 90th-percentile cyclone lowers income per person by 7.4 percent twenty years later, equal to losing 3.7 years of average development. The paper rejects the hypotheses that disasters stimulate growth and that short-run losses disappear through migration or transfers. It is a working paper and has not been peer-reviewed in this form. The wiki cites it in What GDP Leaves Out against the reading that reconstruction spending returns a country to where it started.